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postseason odds - Silver (October 11, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 2:59 p.m.,
October 14, 2003
(#2) -
Alan Shank
I have been posting my odds each day in "Al's Baseball Tidbits," available on this site. They do swing back and forth quite drastically, when something like .600 and .400 for a game turn into 0.0 and 1.0. My odds, of course, have nothing to do with who's betting on whom; they are attempts to estimate the true probabilities of each team winning each game and series.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
RISP for hitters and pitchers (October 13, 2003)
Posted 2:56 p.m.,
October 14, 2003
(#7) -
Alan Shank
It seems to me that the most important aspect of ARP is to divide the responsibility for runs allowed up in a rational way. I wrote a program many years ago that used the base-out table from "The Hidden Game of Baseball" to assign "runs" to pitchers based on the run-expectation value of the situation when they came in, the number of runs scored while they were in the game and the run-expectation value when they left. This was not to focus on RISP situations, but just to get an "ERA" that was more reflective of how well pitchers prevented runs than the official ERA.
Cheers,
Alan Shank